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There is a tired, decades-old joke in Nigerian economic circles: we export crude oil to import refined petrol, and we export raw cocoa only to empty our pockets buying Swiss and French chocolates. For a long time, the trade narrative between France and Nigeria was trapped in this predictable, asymmetric loop.

But last month’s France-Nigeria Agribusiness Dialogue in Lagos proved that the music has finally stopped. Driven by the harsh macroeconomic realities of a devalued Naira, and a food inflation crisis that is testing the resilience of the average Nigerian, this bilateral relationship is undergoing a forced, yet welcome, evolution.

The blueprint for this new era begins exactly where one of Nigeria’s greatest, yet most neglected, resources lies: the soil. The launch of the France-Nigeria Agribusiness Club is not just another talk shop. Backed by France’s global Food and Agriculture Resilience Mission (FARM) initiative – to which the French and African public and private sectors have already pledged substantial financing – the mandate is refreshingly pragmatic.

The strategy has shifted from transactional trading to capacity building, mechanization, and technology transfer. Paris seems to have finally read the room: you can no longer simply look at a 220-million-strong market as a dumping ground for finished dairy or cereals. Instead, French capital and machinery are now positioning themselves as the engine for Nigeria’s own food sovereignty. This intervention aligns perfectly with the Tinubu administration’s push to revamp domestic output and stabilize everyday food prices, making this private-sector alliance an imperative for our national economic recovery.

Nothing illustrates this departure from the old ways better than the appointment of Olawale Rotimi Opeyemi, Chief Executive Officer of JR Farms, as the pioneer President of the Club. JR Farms is the poster child for the modern Nigerian hustle, focusing heavily on agro-processing across the continent and launching digital trade solutions like the Food for Nations platform. By placing a young Nigerian entrepreneur who champions value addition at the helm, the message from both Abuja and Paris is clear: the days of paternalistic trade are dead. Youth-led co-creation is the new currency.

Yet, anyone who understands the Nigerian market knows that agriculture does not exist in a vacuum. The bottlenecks dissected at the Lagos dialogue revealed that our farming sector is starved of more than just fertilizers; it desperately needs data, cold chain logistics, and fintech solutions.
This is where the agribusiness conversation organically spills over into a broader industrial masterplan. Moving perishable goods from the markets of Kano to the ports of Lagos demands robust cold chain infrastructure, an arena where French logistics giants are now aggressively expanding. Simultaneously, bridging our agricultural data deficit is opening lucrative doors for partnerships between French tech investors and homegrown Nigerian agri-tech startups.

This integrated, cross-sector approach is essentially a microcosm of the grand strategy driven by the broader France-Nigeria Business Council. Long championed by the formidable, unapologetic ambition of business and industrial titans like Aliko Dangote, Abdulsamad Rabiu, and Tony Elumelu, the Council has spent the last few years laying a massive bilateral foundation. Dangote has notably flipped the script by turning France into a major customer for his mega-refinery’s aviation fuel. Elumelu, on his part, has steadily pushed his United Bank for Africa toward full banking operations in Paris, positioning intercontinental trade flows to be driven by African capital.

This top-tier momentum was powerfully showcased at the landmark Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi earlier this year. It was at this specific gathering that the Council’s tenth meeting proved to the world that the geopolitical and geoeconomic tectonic plates are shifting. As French influence faces heavy headwinds in its traditional Francophone comfort zones, Paris is making a calculated, execution-driven pivot to forge alliances with Anglophone giants like Nigeria and Kenya.

Building on the heavy lifting done by these veteran business leaders, younger players across dynamic economic sectors are boldly stepping up. The pipeline between Paris’s tech hubs and the Lagos startup ecosystem is maturing, with French venture capital increasingly chasing Nigerian innovators.

The creative economy is seeing similar momentum, seeking to turn co-productions and animation into bankable, non-oil export avenues. The acquisition of Multichoice by French group Canal+ is yet another sign of growing convergence between the world’s Francophone and Anglophone spheres, with Africa as a vital frontier.

Meanwhile, as we navigate our energy transition, French majors are diversifying their local portfolios beyond deep-water oil blocks into liquefied natural gas and clean and sustainable power generation for local industries.
Last month’s Agribusiness Dialogue was never solely about farming; it was a declaration of intent. The success of emerging champions like JR Farms, standing tall on the commercial bridge built by figures like Dangote and Elumelu, is the ultimate proof of concept.

The lazy economics of exchanging raw materials for finished goods has officially expired. The future of France-Nigeria relations is about building the factories, deploying the technology, and funding the infrastructure right here on Nigerian soil, working with global partners who are ready to do business the Nigerian way.

Former House of Representatives Candidate and Former Secretary, APC Committee of Diaspora Chairmen, Ayoola Lawal, has cautioned against any attempt to reintroduce Nigeria’s former blanket petrol subsidy regime, describing such a move as economically unsustainable and out of step with the country’s present fiscal realities.

Lawal said the debate over fuel subsidy should move beyond the politics of cheaper petrol and focus on the fundamental question of how Nigeria can use the fiscal space created by subsidy removal to strengthen the economy and improve citizens’ welfare.

According to him, Nigeria cannot afford to return to a model in which public resources are used to keep petrol prices artificially low, particularly where such a system creates incentives for import dependence and places a substantial burden on government finances.

“Any political leader advocating the wholesale reversal and reintroduction of the old fuel subsidy regime needs to seriously rethink their understanding of the present reality of the Nigerian economy,” Lawal said.

He argued that the central issue should not be whether Nigerians deserve relief from the high cost of living. They do. Rather, the question should be how that relief is delivered and who actually benefits from it.

Lawal noted that a blanket fuel subsidy benefits consumers according to the quantity of petrol they consume, rather than according to their level of economic vulnerability.

“A wealthy household with several vehicles and fuel-consuming assets can receive substantially more benefit from a universal petrol subsidy than a poor household that does not own a vehicle,” he said.

He therefore advocated a shift from subsidising petrol to directly supporting vulnerable Nigerians.

“If the objective is to reduce transport costs, support mass transportation. If the objective is to address food inflation, invest in agricultural production, logistics and storage. If the objective is to protect vulnerable households, provide targeted social protection.

“Do not subsidise the commodity when what Nigerians need is protection.”

Nigeria should not subsidise imported fuel

Lawal also questioned the economic wisdom of returning to a system that could require Nigeria to use public funds to support imported petroleum products.

He said Nigeria’s long-term economic interest should be to increase domestic refining capacity, retain more value within the Nigerian economy, reduce foreign-exchange exposure and build a competitive downstream petroleum sector.

“Why should Nigeria export crude oil, import refined petroleum products and then use taxpayers’ money to subsidise the imported product?

“That is not a sustainable economic model. It is a cycle of dependency.”

He argued that the emergence of significant domestic refining capacity creates an opportunity for Nigeria to progressively move away from the old import-dependent model.

What happened to the subsidy savings?

The former APC diaspora official also challenged governments at both the federal and state levels to demonstrate what they are doing with the additional fiscal resources made available following subsidy removal.

According to Lawal, increased allocations to the states and local governments should translate into visible improvements in infrastructure, transportation, healthcare, education, agriculture, security and other public services.

“Subsidy removal should not become an excuse for governments to receive more money without delivering better governance,” he said.

“The citizens have every right to ask: Where is the money going? What value are governments creating with the additional resources?”

He maintained that reversing subsidy because governments have not adequately demonstrated the value of the additional revenue would amount to treating the symptom rather than addressing the underlying governance problem.

“Target Nigerians, not petrol”

Lawal said Nigeria needs to transition from a culture of universal consumption subsidies to targeted economic protection.

“Target Nigerians, not petrol,” he declared.

“Government should identify those who are genuinely vulnerable and provide them with appropriate support. That is more rational and potentially more equitable than providing a blanket subsidy to everyone, including those who can comfortably afford market prices.”

Warning to subsidy advocates

Lawal further warned political leaders advocating a return to the old subsidy regime to explain clearly how they intend to finance it and who would ultimately benefit.

“If you advocate a blanket reintroduction without presenting a credible answer to its fiscal cost, its beneficiaries, its financing and its implications for Nigeria’s domestic refining and energy transition, then you need to rethink your understanding of the Nigerian economy,” he said.

He added that a universal subsidy could disproportionately protect established consumption patterns and relatively better-off groups while providing less meaningful assistance to the poorest Nigerians.

“That raises a fundamental political question: Who exactly are you subsidising?”

Lawal said policymakers must be careful not to allow legitimate public anger over the cost of living to become a justification for returning to a policy architecture that Nigeria has already struggled to sustain.

“Nigeria must not confuse cheaper petrol with a better economy”

The former House of Representatives candidate said Nigeria does not have to choose between subsidy and hardship.

“There is a third option: retain the reform, but use the fiscal gains to protect vulnerable Nigerians and build a more productive economy.

“That means targeted assistance rather than blanket subsidy; investment rather than consumption; domestic refining rather than permanent import dependence; and accountability for the additional revenues accruing to governments.”

Lawal concluded:

“Nigeria must not confuse making petrol cheaper with making Nigerians better off. The objective of economic policy should not be to make yesterday’s system affordable again. It should be to make tomorrow’s Nigeria more productive, competitive and equitable.”

Ayoola Lawal
Former House of Representatives Candidate
Former Secretary, APC Committee of Diaspora Chairmen